Hello 2020!  The start of a new decade!

Wishing you and your family a wonderful new year of health,  personal growth & happiness, and prosperity. 

As we wrap up 2019 in a buyers market, and head into 2020, I’d like to share insights from a recent Bloomberg and Knight Frank report about the real estate market. 

Rich homebuyers laid low in 2019 as economic uncertainties turned global cities into risky propositions.

But don't be surprised next year to spot the world's wealthiest people beginning to spend money again as home prices in relatively stable economic areas continue to sink into bargain territory.

In a few cities, prices are even set to rise, according to global property consultancy Knight Frank.

New York's Still a Buyer's Market

New York City prices will fall 3% next year, a continuation of this year's trend. (In the third quarter of 2019, prices were down 4.4% from the same period the previous year, according to Knight Frank.) To sell all the newly built condos in Manhattan at the current sales pace, it would take nine years. And the uncertainty of the presidential election will likely keep buyers on the sidelines, according to Jonathan Miller, president of appraiser Miller Samuel Inc.

Without Foreigners, Vancouver's Stuck, Too

Sellers of pricey properties in Vancouver next year will likely still be feeling the hangover from the drawback of Chinese buyers and foreign buyer tax measures that were introduced in 2016 to cool runaway prices. Luxury values in the city will fall 5% next year, according to Knight Frank's forecast.

Hong Kong Will Deflate

The political unrest in Hong Kong has hurt the luxury market, but it's still unlikely to crash in 2020, according to Knight Frank, which projects a 2% drop for luxury prices next year.

Philip White, president, and chief executive officer of Sotheby's International Realty, says buyers are putting purchases on hold while they watch to see what happens with the pro-democracy protests. In the meantime, they're starting to look for opportunities elsewhere in cities such as in Vancouver, Los Angeles, San Francisco, and London.

Miami Will Have a Comeback

Miami's high-end condo market, on the other hand, is poised for something of a comeback in 2020, helped by President Trump's tax overhaul, which capped federal deductions on state and local taxes, according to Knight Frank.

While South Americans pulled away in recent years as the strengthening dollar added to the cost of buying in the U.S., domestic buyers are making up for it: Florida, which has no income tax, is drawing wealthy buyers from high-tax states like New York and New Jersey. Those buyers will push up Miami high-end prices by 5% in 2020, Knight Frank says.

Los Angeles's Bright Spot Is in the $2 Million-$10 Million Range

Los Angeles's market, from Beverly Hills to Bel Air, will show moderate price increases in 2020–amounting to about 2%. It might have been higher but for a pullback of foreign buyers, particularly Chinese who face restrictions on moving money abroad. That's tended to weaken the highest end of the market.

California's wildfires, including one in 2018 that tore through Malibu, have also hurt by pushing up the cost of insurance, according to Sotheby's White. Demand has been particularly weak for properties above $10 million. Homes priced below $10 million have a more bullish outlook, according to Knight Frank.

Central London Will Have Modest Success Across the Board

Central London, where prices fell 3% in the 12 months through November, will stabilize slightly next year as the fate of Brexit becomes clearer, says Tom Bill, Knight Frank's head of London residential research. Prices are likely to rise by about 1% next year, according to Knight Frank's research, now that Conservatives have won in a landslide.

"Once the Brexit deal is completed, we forecast rising momentum across all markets, with price growth reflecting this from 2021 onwards," the company's 2020 forecast report says.

"Next year we could see the disorderly Brexit risk recede," he says. "If that is the case, there's an awful lot of pent-up capital ready to buy in London, and that will translate into higher levels of activity.”

Once again, wishing you a fantastic 2020 and looking forward to continued success together. 

Warm Regards, 

Joelle